The primary factor behind unsuccessful forecasters on prediction markets is rarely poor analytical ability — it typically comes down to inadequate fund allocation. Even accurate probability assessments become worthless when a single streak of losses wipes out your entire balance.
Das Kelly-Kriterium: Die mathematische Grundlage
The Kelly formula establishes the theoretically ideal fraction of your bankroll to deploy on each wager: f = (bp - q) / b
- b = Decimal odds minus one (e.g. for YES at 0,40: b = 1,5)
- p = your estimated probability
- q = 1 - p
Practically speaking: employ fractional Kelly. Given the inherent uncertainty in our estimates, using a fraction of Kelly produces superior risk-adjusted outcomes.
Eiserne Regeln: Niemals brechen
- Never commit more than 5% of your bankroll to any single position — without exception
- Limit exposure to 25% across correlated groups (such as all US election markets)
- Implement a cutoff: cease trading for the remainder of the month if losses reach 25% of your opening balance
- Avoid averaging down into losing positions without first reassessing your core thesis
Erholung nach Drawdown
Following a 20% decline in account value, scale back your position sizes by half until you recover to your previous peak.
Häufig gestellte Fragen
- Wie viel Startkapital brauche ich für ernsthaftes Prediction Market Trading?
- Between 500 and 1.000 $ provides sufficient resources to maintain exposure across 10-20 positions using fractional Kelly sizing. Capital below 100 $ encounters practical constraints that prevent disciplined position management.
- Was tun nach einer Gewinnserie?
- Maintain heightened scrutiny rather than relaxing it. Winning streaks breed complacency and overconfidence. Adhere strictly to your sizing discipline regardless of recent results.