In this guide
Successful prediction market traders don't operate on impulse — they adhere to a disciplined weekly schedule that maximises research productivity. This article outlines a battle-tested 5-hour weekly approach.
Monday: Calendar & Market Scanning (1 hour)
- Survey the week ahead for significant developments: central bank announcements, political contests, sporting fixtures, economic indicators
- Browse PolyGram for markets that launched recently
- Narrow down to 3-5 markets where you possess a plausible edge during the coming week
- Assess your current holdings — has fresh data emerged that warrants position adjustment?
Tuesday-Thursday: Deep Research (2 hours)
- Conduct rigorous analysis of each shortlisted market
- Develop your own probability assessment prior to examining what the market is pricing
- Weigh your assessment against the market's implied odds — commit only if the discrepancy justifies entry
- Determine appropriate position magnitude using the Kelly criterion for each prospective trade
Friday: Execution & Review (1 hour)
- Place this week's trades when liquidity is strongest
- Examine markets settling this week — document how outcomes aligned with your forecasts
- Refresh your tracking spreadsheet with results
Weekend: Performance Analysis (1 hour)
- Compute weekly profit/loss and cumulative Brier score
- Spot recurring patterns or biases in your recent forecasting
- Study one pertinent academic paper or professional commentary within your specialisation
FAQ
- Can I be profitable trading prediction markets part-time?
- Absolutely — numerous successful traders commit fewer than 10 hours weekly. The calibre of your analysis outweighs the sheer number of hours invested.
- What tools do I need for this routine?
- PolyGram's platform for trading, a spreadsheet application for record-keeping, and access to your preferred research materials. Sophisticated software is unnecessary.