Bitcoin price on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing the **NO** side at 100% for this contract, so the market is effectively saying the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute close at 12:00 ET will land in the lower ranges rather than the headline bands traders may associate with a much higher spot move.[19] The settlement is mechanical: USDC is locked into conditional tokens on Polygon, and resolution follows the specified Binance candle close, not a broader Bitcoin reference rate or end-of-day spot print.[19]

Recent price data leaves that 0% YES reading looking anchored to the mid-$60,000s rather than to a breakout regime. StatMuse puts Bitcoin’s 8 August trade-day close at $64,929.01, while other trackers show contemporaneous pricing around $64,600–$64,850 and a month-to-date range that has stayed well below the market’s upper strike bands.[1][2][10][11] That matters because prediction markets on discrete price brackets usually track the distribution of where price sits near settlement, and a contract priced at 0% YES normally reflects either a strong consensus that the target band is out of reach or a stale market that has not yet repriced to current conditions.[19]

For traders, the main catalysts are the usual short-window drivers rather than any Bitcoin-specific narrative: macro prints, US rate expectations, and any abrupt move in risk assets before the 12:00 ET Binance candle is fixed. One recent market note pointed to support from institutional inflows and large-holder accumulation, but also to thin momentum and repeated trading around the $65,000 area, which is exactly the kind of setup that can keep a one-minute noon close trapped near nearby brackets unless a fresh catalyst hits.[5][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Bitcoin price on August 8? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.