Bitcoin price on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is effectively saying there is no live bid for a Bitcoin close that lands inside the specified August 9 Binance bracket at noon Eastern. On Polymarket, traders are using USDC on Polygon against conditional tokens, so the quoted price is the crowd’s immediate view of where the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute 12:00 ET close will settle, not a broader view on Bitcoin’s day-to-day direction.

That 0% screen sits against a Bitcoin market that has recently been trading in the mid-**$60,000s** on several public price trackers, with August so far showing a fairly contained range rather than a decisive breakout. Recent daily closes reported by Bitcoin data sites have clustered around the low-to-mid $60,000s, while broader August history has included swings from roughly **$62,000** to above **$65,000** within a single session, which is the kind of volatility that matters for a one-minute fixed-time settlement. Comparable Polymarket-style bracket markets tend to resolve on the final few minutes of local liquidity rather than on the day’s broader trend, so a flat-looking market can still move sharply if spot drifts through a threshold into the noon ET candle.

For traders, the main catalysts are the usual Bitcoin-specific drivers that can hit spot liquidity quickly: ETF flow headlines, macro data that shifts dollar and rates expectations, and any exchange- or custody-related news that affects order books. Because the contract settles on Binance’s BTC/USDT candle at exactly noon Eastern, the most relevant watchpoint is not just the headline direction of Bitcoin but whether there is a thin book or sudden repricing around that timestamp, since a small move can decide which bracket the close lands in.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.