Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Trump has not been expected to use the summit to announce an immediate cut in China tariffs, and the market’s 3% YES price reflects that. The relevant precedent is the first Trump-Xi cycle: trade headlines often produced truce language, purchase pledges and working groups, but tariff relief itself was usually tied to later, specific executive actions rather than a summit-stage remark. That matters for settlement here, because only a definitive announcement of a reduction, removal or suspension on tariffs aimed at China, or a clearly defined group including China, counts. On Polymarket, the crowd price can be read as a direct implied probability; on Kalshi it is closer to a regulated contract quote, while Betfair and Smarkets typically show decimal odds with exchange fees and wider access frictions depending on jurisdiction and KYC.

Recent reporting suggests the summit’s centre of gravity has been agriculture, aircraft, rare earths and the wider truce, not tariff rollback. Reuters and NPR’s comparisons of the U.S. and Chinese read-outs after the Trump-Xi meeting described purchase commitments on soybeans and Boeing jets, plus continued talks on market access and export restrictions, but no explicit U.S. promise to cut China tariffs. That leaves the main catalysts as a surprise Trump statement, an executive order, or a formal White House or USTR release before the settlement window closes. Traders also need to watch whether any follow-up talks link tariff relief to a broader framework on rare earths, fentanyl or industrial access, because past announcements have often been packaged as part of a wider deal rather than isolated tariff news.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.