July Inflation US - Monthly

Platform comparison

Market context

The BLS will release July 2026's seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers on 12 August 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. This market settles on the month-on-month percentage change in CPI-U, and Polymarket currently prices YES at 0%, reflecting trader conviction that the monthly figure will fall outside whatever threshold defines a YES resolution. The conditional token structure on Polygon means positions are denominated in USDC, with settlement occurring directly against the official BLS release.

Month-on-month CPI changes have historically ranged between −0.1% and +0.8% in recent years, with summer months often showing modest increases driven by energy and transport costs. The 0% probability suggests traders expect July's print to land either below or above a specific band—most likely below zero or above +0.8%—rather than indicating deflation is impossible. Comparable summer months in 2023 and 2024 saw prints between +0.2% and +0.3%, establishing a baseline for what "typical" looks like outside volatile periods.

Traders should monitor June's CPI release (scheduled mid-July) as it will anchor expectations for July's figure and signal whether momentum is accelerating or cooling. Energy prices in late June and early July will matter substantially; crude oil volatility and petrol pump prices feed directly into transport costs. The Federal Reserve's policy stance heading into August will also colour market positioning, since traders often price inflation expectations against anticipated monetary responses. Any significant supply shocks—weather events affecting food prices, geopolitical disruptions to energy—between late June and the 12 August settlement window could shift the conditional token valuations sharply.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.