Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, a bipartisan House bill introduced in 2025, seeks to establish regulatory clarity for cryptocurrency and digital assets under U.S. securities and commodities law. The legislation aims to define which tokens qualify as securities, clarify the SEC and CFTC's respective jurisdictions, and create a pathway for digital asset trading venues. For this contract to resolve YES, both chambers must pass identical text and the President must sign by 31 December 2026. Polymarket currently prices this outcome at 37% on USDC-settled conditional tokens, reflecting meaningful but far-from-certain passage odds within the two-year window.

Comparable legislative efforts in crypto regulation—including the 2022 Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act and earlier stablecoin bills—have stalled or taken years to advance beyond committee. The 119th Congress has shown greater appetite for crypto-friendly measures than its predecessor, yet partisan divisions persist on enforcement mechanisms and consumer protection scope. When similar bipartisan bills have reached floor votes, passage rates have been mixed; the 2023 FIT21 Act passed the House but faced Senate resistance. This historical pattern suggests that committee approval and House passage are achievable, but Senate alignment and presidential signature remain the binding constraints.

Key catalysts include the House Financial Services Committee's markup schedule, any Senate Banking Committee companion bill introduction, and shifts in Administration priorities following 2024 election outcomes. Recent reporting from CoinDesk and The Block has tracked lobbying intensity from exchanges and asset issuers, signalling active stakeholder pressure. Traders should monitor whether the bill gains co-sponsors across party lines—a leading indicator of Senate viability—and any competing legislative proposals that might fragment support. Timing pressure intensifies in Q4 2026 as the legislative calendar compresses.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.