What price will Bitcoin hit May 18-24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin’s price is being tracked for the May 18-24 window, with settlement due on 25 May based on the specified index and time rules. The market is effectively asking whether BTC trades through a chosen level before the week ends, rather than where it closes. In comparable weekly ranges, the key distinction is that Polymarket shows probabilities directly, while Kalshi and Smarkets usually quote decimal prices or odds, so a 35% or 84% read on one venue may need translating before it is comparable. Betfair can also look sharper on paper because of its exchange format, but fees and liquidity differ, and access is more restricted in some jurisdictions. With Bitcoin around $77,000 in mid-May, recent commentary has clustered around the $75,000 to $85,000 band, with $82,228 cited as the 200-day moving average and a key resistance point in one recent market note.

For catalysts, traders are watching whether spot buying can push BTC back above that technical ceiling, or whether it remains capped near the high-$70,000s. Fortune reported Bitcoin at $77,347.59 on 18 May, while Robinhood’s event ladder for the same day priced several thresholds around $76,300 to $77,000 at 7pm EDT, suggesting the market had already been leaning cautious early in the week. That leaves policy headlines, ETF flow data, and any broad risk-on or risk-off move as the main drivers before expiry. If BTC can hold above the recent range and challenge the low-$80,000s, higher strike outcomes on Polymarket and the equivalent price bands on Kalshi or Betfair can reprice quickly; if not, the lower brackets remain the more liquid reference points.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares What price will Bitcoin hit May 18-24? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.