What price will Bitcoin hit on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** for Bitcoin reaching the specified July 31 price threshold, while the market itself is settled through USDC on Polygon with outcome exposure handled via conditional tokens. In practical terms, that means traders are not just betting on spot BTC direction, but on whether the final reference price at the settlement time clears the contract’s line before the window closes. [7]

Historically, late-July Bitcoin calls have been read through a mix of volatility, macro headlines and positioning into month-end. Recent price-prediction round-ups have clustered around mid-$60,000s to low-$70,000s for July 2026, with one Yahoo Finance piece saying BTC was expected to trade between $56,000 and $62,000 before the Fed meeting, and another market tracker showing Polymarket traders concentrating probability around the $64,000-$66,000 band. That gap matters for interpreting a 0% read: it signals the market sees the contract strike as far enough away from the prevailing distribution that it is effectively out-of-the-money. [6][7][13]

For the final stretch, a trader should watch the Fed calendar, any US spot ETF flow headlines, and Bitcoin’s own level into the close, because the settlement depends on where the price lands in the window rather than the broader narrative. Yahoo Finance highlighted the end-of-month Fed meeting as a key driver for whether BTC stays range-bound or breaks lower, and Polymarket’s contract list shows the market updating live as the date approaches, with each tick in BTC changing the implied odds across the strike ladder. [6][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.