Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: IMP (-1.5) vs Isurus (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-3.5) vs Isurus (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-3.5) vs Isurus (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-6.5) vs Isurus (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-3.5) vs Isurus (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Imperial (-12.5) vs Isurus (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Polymarket contract on Isurus versus Imperial sits at 100% YES, meaning traders are pricing Imperial as a near-certain winner of this Counter-Strike quarterfinal best-of-three. The match was originally scheduled for 13 August at 7:00PM ET within the BetBoom Storm Playoffs, a regional South American competition. At present pricing, conditional tokens representing an Isurus victory trade at negligible value on Polygon, whilst Imperial victory tokens command the full USDC stake.
Imperial have established themselves as the stronger outfit in regional South American Counter-Strike over the past eighteen months, consistently placing above Isurus in LAN qualifiers and online tournaments. Isurus, whilst competitive, have struggled to maintain roster stability and have underperformed in head-to-head matchups against top regional sides. Historical precedent suggests that when one team enters a playoff quarterfinal with a significant skill gap, the favourite's probability often reflects that disparity accurately. However, best-of-three formats introduce variance; single maps can swing on utility usage or individual performances rather than raw team strength.
Traders should monitor official BetBoom Storm communications for any schedule changes, roster confirmations, or technical issues that might delay proceedings beyond the seven-day window triggering a 50-50 resolution. Recent esports tournament disruptions have occasionally stemmed from visa complications or equipment failures rather than competitive upsets. The settlement window closes 14 August at 05:15 UTC, providing a narrow buffer. Any announcement of postponement or cancellation would immediately invalidate the current market pricing and force resolution toward the tie condition.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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