Dota 2: Team Resilience vs OG (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

Team Resilience face OG in a best-of-three Dota 2 match during The International Group Stage on 14 August 2026 at 01:00 ET. Polymarket currently prices Team Resilience victory at 99% (implied odds of roughly 100:1), with the contract denominated in USDC on Polygon. The settlement window closes at 12:10 UTC on the same day, allowing a narrow window for resolution once the match concludes. Conditional tokens representing each outcome trade independently; the YES token (Team Resilience win) trades near parity with the contract's full value, whilst the NO token (OG win) has collapsed to near-zero liquidity.

OG's historical performance at The International tournaments provides the primary anchor for current pricing. The organisation won back-to-back titles in 2018 and 2019, and whilst their competitive standing has fluctuated since, they remain a recognised contender with established roster depth and tournament experience. Team Resilience, by contrast, operates with substantially lower historical visibility in tier-one Dota 2 competition. The 99% probability reflects not merely the scheduled matchup but an implicit assessment that OG's organisational pedigree and tournament infrastructure create asymmetric preparation advantages.

Traders should monitor official The International schedule confirmations from Valve and PGL, the event organisers, particularly regarding any group stage rescheduling or format changes announced in the weeks preceding August. Roster changes or last-minute stand-ins for either team, typically announced 48–72 hours before matches, could shift underlying match dynamics. The settlement mechanism's 50–50 tie resolution applies only to outright cancellations or draws; postponements trigger a 168-hour delay measurement from the original 01:00 ET start, after which the market remains open pending rescheduled play.

Methodology

This page reviews Dota 2: Team Resilience vs OG (BO3) - The International Group Stage across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.