Dota 2: Execration vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Dota 2 bo3 at **100% YES** on Execration, which leaves essentially no implied room for an Amaru Gaming upset or for a fallback settlement under the contract rules. The market is a USDC position on Polygon using conditional tokens, so the only thing that matters for resolution is the official match outcome by the settlement deadline, not in-game narrative or team reputation.

That extreme price sits in tension with the visible pre-match data. Comparative listings put Execration and Amaru Gaming close enough to trade as a live series rather than a foregone conclusion: Strafe shows Execration at rank #21 with two wins from their last five, and Amaru at #28 with one win from five, while dltv gives a narrower spread, ranking Execration #25 and Amaru #35 and listing the series as a best-of-three elimination match.[1][4] Their head-to-head is also fresh rather than established, with Strafe noting this is the first meeting between the sides.[1]

For traders, the key catalysts are mundane but decisive: whether the bracket, stream, and official start time hold, whether either roster changes before map one, and whether the match is fully completed inside the seven-day grace period. Hawk Live had the game live with a 05:00 GMT start and 0-0 scoreline, which suggests the event was at least scheduled to run on time, but any postponement, cancellation, or incomplete series would force the market away from a clean winner-based settlement.[2] On a market already pinned at 100%, even a small operational change is what matters most.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Execration vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.