Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 81% |
| Game 2 Winner | 74% |
| Game 1 Winner | 73% |
| Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) | 58% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 40% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 37% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 37% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 37% |
Market context
Polymarket has this contract at 73% for Gen.G today, implying the market is pricing them as a clear but not overwhelming favourite in a best-of-three that settles on the match result or falls to 50-50 only if the game is not played or ends tied. The on-chain exposure is standard prediction-market plumbing: USDC collateral, Polygon settlement, and conditional tokens that resolve to the listed outcome once the result is final.
That price sits comfortably in line with the recent head-to-head context. Gen.G beat KT Rolster 2-0 on 7 August in the same LCK phase, and that result matters because repeat match-ups in League of Legends often turn on champion pools, side selection and draft adaptation more than on broad season narratives. A 73% line suggests traders are acknowledging Gen.G’s stronger recent form while still allowing for BO3 variance, particularly if KT can force a longer series or exploit a draft edge.
The main catalysts are straightforward: confirmation the series starts as scheduled on 19 August, any LCK timetable changes, and any roster or substitution news before lock. The market’s settlement window runs to 19 August 14:00 UTC, so a delay past that point would shift attention to the contract’s postponement rules rather than the in-game result. The listed fixture remains on the LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group slate for 19 August, with current schedules showing Gen.G and KT Rolster paired for that date.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legen… on Polymarket Alternative UK
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