LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Supernova and Conviction will contest the upper bracket semifinal of the North American Challengers League playoffs in a best-of-three League of Legends match on 22 May at 19:00 ET. The winner advances directly to the grand final; the loser drops to the lower bracket. This tier sits below the LCS but feeds directly into franchising opportunities, making playoff performance a career-defining moment for both rosters.

The 0% implied probability on Polymarket reflects either extreme confidence in Supernova or minimal liquidity in this niche esports market. Conviction has historically underperformed in high-stakes playoffs despite regular-season consistency, whilst Supernova's mid-season roster adjustments have yielded improved macro play. Comparable Challengers League matchups on Kalshi and Smarkets have typically settled within 55–70% ranges for favourites, suggesting the current Polymarket odds may represent liquidity constraints rather than genuine assessment. Betfair's decimal format (1.01 or lower for Supernova) would reflect similar extremity, though Betfair's higher KYC thresholds in the UK mean fewer retail traders participate in esports markets.

Key catalysts include roster confirmation by 20 May—both teams have rotated players mid-season—and any last-minute schedule shifts from Riot Games. The Challengers League operates on compressed timelines; delays beyond 7 May would trigger the 50-50 tie resolution clause. Monitor team social media and the official Challengers League broadcast schedule for injury announcements or substitutions announced within 24 hours of match time, which historically shift implied probabilities by 10–15 percentage points on alternative platforms.

Methodology

This page compares LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.