Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: DetonatioN FocusMe (-2.5) vs QT DIG∞ (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: DetonatioN FocusMe (-2.5) vs QT DIG∞ (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: DFM (-1.5) vs QT DIG∞ (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: DetonatioN FocusMe (-2.5) vs QT DIG∞ (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
Market context
DetonatioN FocusMe and QT DIG∞ are scheduled to compete in the lower bracket round one of the VCT Pacific Play-In on 20 August 2026, with the match set to begin at 4:00 AM ET. The contest is a best-of-three series, and the winner advances whilst the loser is eliminated from the tournament. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 100% YES, reflecting the conditional token structure on Polygon where traders hold either a YES or NO token redeemable for 1 USDC upon settlement. This extreme pricing suggests either overwhelming confidence in the match occurring as scheduled or minimal liquidity depth at the extremes.
Historical precedent in VCT Pacific tournaments shows that lower bracket play-in matches rarely face cancellation once the tournament window opens, though fixture postponements within the rescheduling window have occurred during regional qualifiers when technical issues or unforeseen circumstances arise. DetonatioN FocusMe enters as a Japanese regional representative with established infrastructure, whilst QT DIG∞ represents a newer competitive entity in the Pacific ecosystem. The 100% probability leaves no room for pricing in match cancellation risk, which typically carries non-zero probability given the compressed August scheduling and potential for last-minute roster or venue complications.
Traders should monitor official VCT Pacific announcements regarding final bracket confirmation and any schedule adjustments in the week preceding 20 August. The settlement window closes at 14:00 UTC on 20 August, creating a tight window for resolution. Any postponement must occur before 3 September 2026 at 23:59 ET for the market to remain active; beyond that date, the match would be deemed cancelled and resolve 50-50.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCT … on Polymarket Alternative UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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