WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is effectively saying WTI has no visible path to finishing above the strike in the settlement print. For a Polymarket user, the relevant object is not spot oil in the abstract but the front-month WTI settle that gets resolved through the platform’s **USDC**-denominated, **Polygon**-based conditional tokens at the stated settlement time.

That zero price sits well below recent comparable levels in the WTI tape. Front-month WTI has been trading in the mid-to-high $70s in recent market snapshots, with one live futures feed showing August 2026 WTI at **$79.77** and another citing a much lower intraday level around **$74.63** after a multi-session decline.[2][6] Robinhood’s prediction market for the same date shows nearby thresholds priced meaningfully above zero, including contracts above **$78.49** and **$79.49**, which underlines how sharply the market currently discounts a close above this specific strike.[7]

A trader watching this market should track the final front-month settlement path, since ICE-linked WTI contracts roll according to the nearest listed month and settle on the benchmark used for the event.[7] The immediate catalysts are the usual crude drivers: OPEC+ commentary, US inventory data, Middle East shipping headlines, and any move in the prompt-month futures curve that changes the closing print before the settlement window ends. Recent reporting has highlighted easing supply fears around the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure point on crude, with WTI falling on that theme in early August.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.