Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is currently treating a public Iranian pledge to surrender any part of its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 March 2026 as effectively off the table. On Polymarket, the position settles through USDC on Polygon into conditional tokens, so the only thing that matters is whether Iran publicly agrees to transfer, ship or otherwise give up all or part of that stockpile before the deadline; the physical movement itself is not required unless it is part of the wording of the pledge.

Historically, the price gap makes sense because Iran has more often been found in breach of uranium limits than in voluntary surrender mode. The IAEA said in 2019 that Iran had exceeded the 2015 deal’s stockpile cap, and later reporting showed a sharp build-up of highly enriched material, including a 2025 IAEA warning that Iran had increased its 60% stockpile to more than 408 kilograms.[2][5][3] Comparable episodes have usually involved dilution, conversion or temporary restraint under external pressure, not a public promise to hand over material; Reuters also reported in 2014 that Iran had diluted or converted more than 97% of a sensitive stockpile under an interim nuclear deal, but that was a very different political and technical context.[1]

The main catalysts now are diplomatic headlines, not reactor data. Traders should watch for any statement from Tehran, White House briefings, IAEA language on access or custody arrangements, and whether negotiations over “enriched material” move from deadlock to a published text; Reuters reported in May 2026 that Iranian sources said Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had forbidden export of the uranium, while other reports said the US was still pressing for surrender or third-party transfer.[7] A fresh CBS report in 2026 also said Iran had agreed in principle to dispose of highly enriched uranium in talks with the US, but that a final deal was still unresolved, which is the kind of ambiguity that can move a binary market quickly if converted into an official public commitment.[8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.