Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's peak temperature on 28 July 2026 will be recorded by the Observatory and published in its Daily Extract dataset, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, reflecting the absence of any trading activity or price discovery; this is typical for weather contracts months in advance where conditional token liquidity remains sparse and traders have not yet positioned themselves.

Historical July temperatures in Hong Kong cluster around 32–34°C as daily maxima, with occasional spikes to 35°C or above during heat waves. The Observatory's records from recent Julys show that temperatures exceeding 36°C occur roughly once per decade, whilst readings below 31°C are rare. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 28 July 2026, but the contract cannot resolve until the Observatory publishes its final Daily Extract data, which typically occurs within days of the observation date. This lag between the event and settlement creates a window where traders holding conditional tokens face basis risk if they attempt to exit positions before official publication.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any issued heat wave warnings as July 2026 approaches. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if present, will influence regional atmospheric patterns and should be cross-referenced against the Observatory's monthly climate bulletins. The contract's liquidity and price formation depend entirely on when traders begin accumulating USDC positions on Polygon; early movers will face wide spreads, whilst later entrants benefit from tighter markets but reduced time to adjust exposure.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 28? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.