US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is effectively assigning no value to a signed or formally adopted US-Iran nuclear deal before the 31 August 2026 deadline. On Polymarket, that means buying YES would require USDC on Polygon to be locked into the conditional token position that only pays out if the market’s settlement condition is met; at today’s price, traders are treating that outcome as remote.

That reading makes sense against the recent negotiating history. US and Iranian officials have repeatedly moved from broad principles to narrower frameworks, but the hard issues have stayed the same: uranium enrichment, stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, inspections, and sanctions relief. In February, both sides talked up “progress” and “guiding principles”, yet even then there was no public confirmation that Iran would accept the core restrictions demanded by Washington.[3][4][6] The June 14 written agreement, as reported, was still described as a memorandum or framework with another 60-day period for further talks rather than a final settlement.[1][5][12]

For traders, the key catalysts are any fresh joint statement, a scheduled negotiating round, or evidence that the outstanding nuclear terms have been put into a signed instrument rather than an outline. Watch for whether the talks move beyond the initial framework on enrichment limits, IAEA access, and the handling of enriched uranium stockpiles, because those are the sticking points most likely to determine whether the market can resolve “Yes” before the window closes.[11][13][14] Reuters reported in mid-June that the sides had agreed to begin detailed nuclear talks in Geneva, which is the sort of timetable signal that can move this market if it turns into a real draft, signature, or formal adoption.[5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.