Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing this conditional token at **62% YES**, so the market is treating a domestic opening above **$357.1 million** as plausible but still not the base case. Because settlement uses **The Numbers**’ final three-day Friday-to-Sunday figure in **USDC on Polygon**, traders are effectively betting on the eventual reported weekend total rather than studio estimates, with the contract staying open until the box office figures are final.

The comparison case is unusually clear: **Avengers: Endgame** set the domestic opening record at **$357 million**, while **Spider-Man: No Way Home** is the closest recent analogue for a solo superhero launch at **$260.1 million**. Current reporting suggests *Brand New Day* has already cleared a record opening day, with Thursday previews plus Friday taking it to **$168 million** on Friday alone and studio tracking pointing to a debut around **$325 million**, which is below Endgame’s mark but close enough to keep the upside in play if Saturday and Sunday hold exceptionally well.[1][4][7] That is why a 62% price reads as a view that the film is exceptionally front-loaded, but still needs near-record retention through the rest of the weekend to get over the line.

The key catalysts are the final Saturday and Sunday actuals, which will determine whether early demand converts into a record-setting three-day total or fades into a very large but sub-record opening. Traders should watch for further box office reporting from trade outlets as the numbers firm up, plus any signs that attendance remains broad rather than concentrated in previews; the main dependency is whether the final The Numbers weekend figure lands above or below the **$357,115,007** threshold. Recent coverage from *Variety*, *The Hollywood Reporter* and *CNBC* has already put the film in the historical range where this becomes a live question, with preview sales and first-day grosses both setting records.[1][5][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.