Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **1% YES** on USDC settled through Polygon conditional tokens, which implies the crowd thinks IMF Portwatch will not print a final daily Strait of Hormuz transit count at or above the threshold on any day before 31 July 2026. In practice, that means traders are pricing in a very low chance of at least one daily reading clearing the line in the remaining window, not just a brief uptick in traffic.

That 1% looks aggressive when set against recent comparables, because the Strait can move sharply from near-halt conditions to double-digit or even mid-20s daily crossings once security risk eases. On 25 July, AXSMarine reportedly counted 25 commercial vessels through the strait, while Kpler saw only six on 13 July and called it the lowest in five weeks after renewed US-Iran strikes raised risk.[3][1] Earlier in the month, Lloyd’s List Intelligence said large-vessel traffic had effectively ground to a halt on the US-co-ordinated route, with no vessels above 10,000 dwt transiting with AIS switched on since 7 July.[2]

For a Polymarket user, the live catalysts are straightforward: any ceasefire, de-escalation, maritime security announcement, or shipping advisory that changes route choice can move the final daily Portwatch print quickly, because the market resolves on the first finalised day that meets the threshold. Watch whether vessels resume broadcasting on the Oman-hugging lane, whether insurers and operators restore normal schedules, and whether IMF Portwatch keeps posting revised daily arrivals after the next day’s data becomes final; those are the mechanics that matter more than headline sentiment.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.