GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying a public GPT-6 launch by year-end 2025 is not expected. On Polymarket, that means traders are debating a binary outcome settled in **USDC** on **Polygon**, via conditional tokens: if OpenAI makes GPT-6 generally available before the deadline, YES wins; if not, NO does.

The main historical guide is OpenAI’s slower, irregular release cadence for major numbered models. GPT-5 arrived after a long gap from GPT-4, and OpenAI later pushed a mid-cycle update, GPT-5.5, rather than jumping straight to GPT-6, which has reinforced the idea that numbering and launch timing are not tightly coupled. Public commentary in late 2025 also pointed the other way, with claims that GPT-6 would not be released in 2025 at all. That makes a zero-price YES less surprising than it would be for a market tied to a product with a fixed roadmap.

For traders, the key catalysts are OpenAI’s own announcements, any preview or waitlist sign-ups, and model-release notes in the OpenAI help centre or API catalogue. A private beta would not be enough under this market’s rules; only a clearly public release counts. The market is also sensitive to schedule slips caused by safety review, inference capacity, and product packaging decisions, because OpenAI has previously shipped incremental models and renamed expected launches rather than releasing them under the anticipated number.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.