Iran ceasefire continues through?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The US-Iran ceasefire is still being treated as holding, with no public confirmation of a fresh American kinetic strike on Iranian soil. That is consistent with the market’s very high 98% YES pricing: on a short-dated event of this sort, traders are mainly discounting the absence of any verified breakdown rather than assuming a durable peace settlement. In comparable geopolitical ceasefires, the first claims of failure have usually mattered more than the formal language, because prediction markets resolve on confirmed actions and credible reporting, not on rhetoric. On Polymarket, that often shows up as a simple implied probability; on Kalshi, the same risk is quoted in dollars per contract; and on Betfair or Smarkets, thinner political liquidity and commission can move the effective break-even differently, even when the headline price looks similar. KYC access also varies: Kalshi is US-regulated, Polymarket access is more jurisdiction-dependent, and exchange-style books can be less uniform for UK users.

What matters now is whether any official statement or consensus reporting appears within one calendar day of a qualifying strike. That makes the key catalysts binary and time-sensitive: a Pentagon or White House announcement, corroborated wire reporting, or evidence of US military action that is widely accepted by credible outlets. Recent market coverage has stressed that the ceasefire remains fragile and that the Strait of Hormuz arrangement is only part of the broader truce, with unresolved disputes still hanging over enforcement and transit terms. For traders comparing platforms, the practical question is not just direction but execution: Polymarket’s fee-free, crypto-settled format can price the event more tightly, while Betfair and Smarkets may show wider spreads or commission drag, and Kalshi’s contract price is easier to read in dollar terms but still maps to the same underlying probability.

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Methodology

We read Iran ceasefire continues through? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.