Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket’s contract is trading at **65% YES**, implying the market sees better-than-even odds that Israel and Hamas will publicly announce a mutual agreement on phase two before the settlement window closes on 31 December 2026. On Polymarket, that view is reflected in the price of the conditional token, with settlement paid in USDC on Polygon if the market’s resolution criteria are met.

The current price sits in the middle of a familiar pattern for Gaza ceasefire markets: phase-one deals have repeatedly produced an initial rally in implied odds, but the follow-through into a second-stage agreement has been far less reliable. In the January 2025 truce, phase two was supposed to begin after 16 days, yet later reporting said the first phase expired without a second-phase deal and talks stalled amid disagreements over withdrawal, disarmament, and renewed fighting.[4][5][14] That history matters because phase two is not just a technical extension; it requires agreement on the hardest issues, including Hamas disarmament and Israeli redeployment, which have been the exact points that have broken earlier ceasefire frameworks.[1][3][8]

For traders, the main catalysts are official statements from Israel, Hamas, the US, Qatar and Egypt, plus any published sequencing for hostages, prisoner releases, troop pullbacks, or transitional governance. Reuters, AP, BBC and other wire-style outlets have repeatedly treated comments from Israeli leaders and US envoys as the key signals, especially when they indicate whether phase-two talks are actually starting or merely being discussed.[10][17][18] Any announcement of a technocratic Gaza administration, a stabilisation force, or a timetable for disarmament would be a direct positive for YES odds, while renewed strikes or disputes over sequencing would likely keep the contract below a full certainty price.[1][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.