Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Strait of Hormuz contract at **14% YES**, which implies traders assign a low chance that IMF Portwatch will print a 7-day moving average of **60 or more ship arrivals** before the market closes. On the current definition, settlement depends on the published Portwatch “Arrivals of Ships” series, so the trade is really about whether commercial transits can hold at a normalised pace long enough for the moving average to clear the threshold on Polygon-settled, USDC-denominated conditional tokens.

That 14% sits against a backdrop of traffic that has only partially recovered from the 2026 disruption. Reuters-style reporting via the Associated Press said last week’s crossings had rebounded to **258 ships** from **138** the week before, but remained well below pre-war levels[2]. Other market coverage has described recent flows as hovering in a broad **30 to 60 crossings a day** range, with one week averaging about **40 vessels**, which is close to the line this contract needs but not clearly above it[6]. Earlier reporting also noted that traffic had fallen to roughly **5% of pre-war levels** during the worst of the closure, while ship diversion and higher war-risk insurance costs kept the route from normalising quickly[10][16][17].

For traders, the key catalysts are any security or routing changes that alter shipowners’ willingness to use the lane: ceasefire enforcement, naval patrol arrangements, mine-clearance claims, and any formal easing by insurers or maritime warning bodies. Recent reports have suggested a cautious trickle of tankers back through the strait, but also warned it could take **eight weeks or more** for backlog and operational frictions to unwind[4][12]. If Portwatch’s 7-day average starts printing consistently above 60, the market can move fast; if headlines turn back to attacks, sanctions enforcement, or renewed naval restrictions, the path to settlement hardens quickly[13][14].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.