Iran ceasefire continues through?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The US and Iran have maintained an undeclared ceasefire since early 2024, following escalatory exchanges in April that included Iranian ballistic missile strikes on Israeli territory and subsequent US-led air defence operations. This market tests whether direct kinetic action between Washington and Tehran remains absent through a specified date. The resolution hinges on official US government confirmation or overwhelming credible reporting of American military strikes on Iranian soil—a threshold that excludes proxy actions, cyber operations, or strikes outside Iranian borders.

Historical precedent suggests such ceasefires are fragile. The 2020 assassination of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani triggered Iranian missile strikes on US bases in Iraq within days, yet neither side escalated further despite mutual posturing. The 2019 downing of a US surveillance drone prompted only cyber and proxy responses from Iran. These patterns indicate both parties maintain off-ramps despite rhetorical escalation, though miscalculation or domestic political pressure can shift calculations rapidly. The 100% implied probability across most platforms reflects this recent stability rather than structural certainty.

Traders monitoring this market should track statements from US defence officials regarding Iranian nuclear programme advances, regional proxy activity in Iraq and Syria, and Israeli military operations that might draw American involvement. The International Atomic Energy Agency's quarterly reports on Iranian uranium enrichment provide technical benchmarks that historically trigger policy reviews in Washington. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP News has documented continued Iranian ballistic missile development, a potential flashpoint if paired with perceived nuclear threshold-crossing. Kalshi's tighter KYC requirements may exclude some international traders present on Polymarket or Betfair, fragmenting liquidity across platforms and potentially widening odds discrepancies as the resolution date approaches.

Methodology

We read Iran ceasefire continues through? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.