Trump out as President by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **Trump out as President by 31 August 2026** at **1% Yes**, so the market is still assigning a very low chance that he resigns, is permanently removed, or otherwise ceases to be President before the deadline.[2] On Polymarket, this is a USDC-settled contract on Polygon using conditional tokens, so traders are effectively buying and selling outcome shares whose value depends entirely on whether the specified event occurs by the settlement cut-off.[2]

The current price sits in a long-running pattern for resignation-style contracts: even when headline risk flares, the market tends to remain anchored near the low single digits unless there is a concrete procedural trigger. A recent example came on the separate 2025 resignation market, where odds jumped after an Oval Office announcement was scheduled, then fell back once no decisive event materialised.[1] That kind of move is more useful as a guide to short-term volatility than as evidence of a durable shift in base rates. For a trader, the key reference point is not speculation about health or political pressure, but whether there is an official resignation announcement, a permanent removal process, or any verified development that would qualify under the market rules.[2]

Catalysts to watch are therefore narrow and mechanical: a White House statement, a formal resignation letter, a 25th Amendment process that results in permanent removal, or any official confirmation that he has ceased to be President before 31 August. Under the contract terms, an announcement of resignation or removal would resolve the market to Yes immediately, even if the departure takes effect later.[2] Because the contract is on-chain, traders can react quickly, but they still depend on credible official reporting and the precise wording of events; temporary incapacity or a short-lived transfer of powers does not count.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Trump out as President by August 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.