Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump would need to resign, be removed through impeachment and conviction, or be declared ineligible under the 25th Amendment before 30 June 2026 for this market to settle Yes. The 1% implied probability reflects the extremely low base rate of presidential exit during a first term absent death or incapacity. No sitting US President has resigned since Richard Nixon in 1974, and removal via impeachment conviction requires a two-thirds Senate supermajority—a threshold unmet since Andrew Johnson in 1868. The 25th Amendment's Section 4 (Cabinet-initiated removal) has never been invoked for a sitting president. Trump's Republican-controlled Senate during this period makes conviction mathematically implausible under current party alignment. Kalshi's decimal odds (99.0 to 101.0) and Polymarket's fractional pricing both reflect this consensus, though fee structures differ: Kalshi charges flat settlement fees whilst Polymarket applies percentage-based taker fees, affecting edge calculations on such low-probability events.

Traders should monitor three specific triggers. First, any formal impeachment proceedings initiated by the House—the most plausible constitutional pathway, though conviction remains the binding constraint. Second, health-related developments or public statements regarding presidential fitness, which could theoretically activate 25th Amendment discussions, though Cabinet composition matters enormously. Third, criminal conviction in any ongoing trial, which could create political pressure but carries no automatic removal mechanism. Reuters and AP newswires remain primary sources for announcement timing. Betfair and Smarkets typically show wider bid-ask spreads on such low-probability markets compared to Polymarket's deeper order books, affecting execution costs for position adjustments through mid-2026.

Methodology

We read Trump out as President by June 30? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative UK?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.