Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket traders are currently pricing this contract at **0% YES**, which implies the market expects IMF Portwatch never to print a 7-day moving average of **60 or more** Strait of Hormuz transit calls before expiry. The contract settles on IMF Portwatch’s published “Arrivals of Ships” series, and on Polymarket that means the relevant USDC position on Polygon only pays out if the conditional token resolves on that specific data threshold, not simply if traffic improves in a general sense.

Recent history gives that pricing a hard reference point. Reuters reported on 31 July that only two VLCCs exited the strait and traffic remained thin, after earlier July reporting showed just three commodity vessels crossing on 17 July and sharply reduced flows amid renewed US-Iran escalation.[1][7] That is well below the roughly 60-a-day level implied by “normal” conditions, and industry trackers have repeatedly described the waterway as operating far under pre-crisis volumes, with traffic near zero at points in April and only partial rebounds thereafter.[13][6]

For traders, the key catalysts are any change in maritime security, ceasefire enforcement, or shipping access rules that could pull commercial operators back into the lane fast enough for the 7-day average to cross the threshold. Watch for Reuters-style ship-tracking updates, any formal easing of Iranian or US restrictions, and whether tankers and non-energy cargoes actually resume transits rather than merely a few symbolic sailings.[1][4] Because the resolution source is IMF Portwatch, what matters is the published moving average, so the timing of data updates can matter as much as the headlines themselves.[10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.