Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Israel is due to hold parliamentary elections on 27 October 2026, and the market turns on who is formally sworn in as prime minister afterwards, not who is projected to lead first. That matters because Israel has a history of prolonged coalition bargaining, and a caretaker or interim premier would not settle this contract. The present 37% crowd-implied probability sits below an outright favourite, but it still points to a race that is far from a settled one, with the usual fragmentation of Israeli politics giving several plausible paths to a different name being sworn in.

Past elections show why traders should treat post-election government formation, not just polling day, as the key event. In recent cycles, coalition arithmetic has repeatedly overridden simple plurality outcomes, with Benjamin Netanyahu often returning through bargaining rather than landslide victories. That is why names such as Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, and Gadi Eisenkot tend to stay relevant even when no single bloc is dominant. On Polymarket, the market is quoted as an implied probability; on Kalshi, the same underlying question is typically shown in price terms that can be read as cents per contract, while Betfair and Smarkets usually express outcomes through back-and-forth odds and exchange liquidity, with fees and spread affecting the effective price.

Catalysts to watch are the election timetable, any snap-election surprise, and pre- or post-election alliance talk, especially among centrist and right-wing blocs. Reuters has reported repeatedly in 2026 on opposition coordination efforts and polling that places Bennett and Eisenkot as credible alternatives to Netanyahu, which can move prices quickly if an alliance hardens or fragments. Resolution risk also depends on whether coalition talks drag into year-end, since no sworn-in successor by 31 December 2026 leaves the market exposed to the contract’s specific settlement rules.

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Methodology

We read Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.