How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **96% YES**, so the market is already pricing in that USGS will record at least one **M6.5+** quake in the August 3–9 window. On Polymarket, that exposure sits inside **USDC** on **Polygon**, with outcomes represented by **conditional tokens**, so the quote reflects trading demand as much as the underlying seismology.

That price is not out of line with how seismic markets tend to behave when a window is still open: a single qualifying event anywhere on Earth is enough to settle YES, and the Earth has already produced multiple 6.5+ shocks in 2026, including a **6.9** near Japan on 25 June and the **7.8** Mindanao sequence, which generated very large aftershock totals and at least two 6.5 events in the broader sequence.[3][11] USGS’s own 2026 “significant earthquakes” feed shows how quickly large events are classified and tracked, but the settlement rule here is stricter: only quakes meeting the magnitude threshold within the specified dates count, regardless of whether they are later treated as significant for other reasons.[1][7]

For traders, the practical watchlist is the USGS event feed and any late magnitude revisions, because the market can remain open if a substantial quake has occurred but has not yet propagated into the resolution source, and the final-day 24-hour revision window also matters.[7] With the settlement deadline set for 10 August 03:59 UTC, the main catalyst is not a scheduled announcement but fresh seismic reporting: a qualifying event can appear first in preliminary bulletins, then be adjusted as analysts refine magnitude and depth, which is exactly the kind of delay that can keep an on-chain market live even after the underlying shock has already happened.[7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.