How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Between 1 and 7 June 2026, the question is whether Earth will experience one or more earthquakes measuring 5.5 magnitude or stronger. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program will be the authoritative source, with data pulled directly from their searchable database filtered for that week and magnitude threshold. Settlement occurs on 8 June, allowing a brief window for late-reported events to be catalogued before final resolution.

The 0% implied probability reflects the inherent difficulty of forecasting seismic activity over a seven-day window. Historically, the global average sits around 15 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or above per year—roughly one every 24 days—but distribution is highly irregular. Some weeks pass with none; others cluster several within days. The 2011 Christchurch sequence and the 2004 Indian Ocean event demonstrate that temporal clustering is geologically plausible, yet any single week carries genuine uncertainty. On Polymarket, this market's decimal odds currently reflect near-zero backing; Kalshi and Betfair's equivalent books (where available) would show comparable pricing, though fee structures differ: Polymarket charges 2% on winnings, whilst Kalshi typically takes 5% and Betfair operates a commission model on net profit.

Traders monitoring this market should watch the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program feed in real time during the settlement window. The agency updates its database continuously, though preliminary magnitudes can shift slightly as seismometers process data. No scheduled geological events trigger this market—seismic activity remains fundamentally unpredictable at weekly scales—making this a pure probability assessment rather than a catalyst-driven trade.

Methodology

This page compares How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.