Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Game Spread +/-4.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Match O/U 36.5 | 1% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Match O/U 38.5 | 1% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Match O/U 40.5 | 1% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 3 Winner | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
The US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the tennis match between Rei Sakamoto and Frances Tiafoe in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rei Sakamoto'…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade US Open ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Frances Tiafoe on Polymarket Alternative UK
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