Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 85% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Match O/U 21.5 | 64% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 60% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Match O/U 22.5 | 56% |
| Completed Match | 55% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Match O/U 23.5 | 48% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Set 1 Winner | 45% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Set 2 Winner | 44% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca | 41% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 37% |
| National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 35% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, national bank open: stefanos tsitsipas vs joao fonseca stands at 85% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Joao Fonseca in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market wi…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca on Polymarket Alternative UK
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