Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Cruzeiro EC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Cruzeiro EC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Coritiba FBC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Cruzeiro EC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Cruzeiro EC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Cruzeiro EC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Cruzeiro EC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Cruzeiro EC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Cruzeiro EC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Cruzeiro EC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing **0% YES** on Coritiba FBC vs Cruzeiro EC - More Markets, so the contract is effectively treating the listed side outcomes as either already resolved, not available, or so unlikely that no traders are bidding them up. The underlying Serie A match is Coritiba versus Cruzeiro, kicking off on 30 July at 20:30 ET, and on Polymarket the position settles via the event’s defined market rules rather than the scoreline itself, with USDC placed on Polygon and resolved into conditional tokens.
That near-zero price sits against a fairly balanced football preview: Sports Mole called a 1-1 draw, while other previews have leaned slightly different ways, including a narrow Coritiba edge or a modest Cruzeiro edge.[1][15][16][17] Head-to-head data from FootyStats show Cruzeiro have 6 wins, Coritiba 5, and 3 draws in the last 14 meetings, which is the sort of mixed sample that usually keeps “more markets” contracts sensitive to late definition changes rather than pure match strength.[8] For a Polymarket user, the practical read is that the contract’s value depends less on who starts better and more on whether the exchange’s exact settlement criteria for these auxiliary markets are still live.
The main catalysts to watch are the final team sheets, any pre-match injury or rotation news, and whether the market has already locked or been fully resolved after kickoff. Recent previews note Coritiba coming off a goalless draw and Cruzeiro off a 1-0 defeat, which can shift expectations around total goals, both teams to score, and related side markets if those are included in the contract set.[16] If the match or its market bundle is affected by schedule adjustments, late line-up disclosures, or missing data in the oracle path, the conditional-token outcome can diverge from the on-the-ground result, so traders normally check the exact market definitions before assuming the football result alone will drive settlement.[20]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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