Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Santos FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Santos FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Clube do Remo O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Clube do Remo O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Clube do Remo 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Clube do Remo 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Santos FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Santos FC O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Santos FC (-1.5) | 16% |
| Santos FC O/U 1.5 | 16% |
| Both Teams to Score | 12% |
| Clube do Remo O/U 0.5 | 11% |
| O/U 2.5 | 5% |
| Clube do Remo (-2.5) | 2% |
| O/U 3.5 | 2% |
| O/U 4.5 | 2% |
| O/U 5.5 | 2% |
| Santos FC (-2.5) | 1% |
| Clube do Remo 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Clube do Remo 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Santos FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Santos FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Clube do Remo (-1.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket has this “More Markets” contract at **0% YES** right now, so the market is pricing either no eligible settlement outcome yet or no trades at all on the conditional tokens tied to the Copa do Brasil tie; that matters because these contracts settle in USDC on Polygon, where the on-chain position only resolves once the market’s conditions are met. The real-world event is **Remo v Santos in the Copa do Brasil**, listed for 4 August at 21:30 local time in Belém, with GE carrying live match information for the first-leg round-of-16 clash.[19][10]
Historically, Santos have been the stronger side in this pairing, which is the main benchmark traders usually lean on when a market sits near zero. Recent comparable meetings have favoured Santos heavily: they beat Remo 2–0 in April 2026, and Sports Mole notes six wins and one draw in seven competitive meetings overall, plus a perfect home record against Remo.[6][2] That kind of head-to-head profile tends to matter on prediction markets because it shapes what happens when the contract is eventually opened to buying and selling, even before the underlying scoreline is known.
The main catalysts are straightforward: confirmed line-ups, any late injury or rotation news, and whether the scheduling changes around the knockout tie affect team selection or travel. GE Globo reported broadcast and kick-off details ahead of the match, while other listings show the fixture time as 02:30 UTC on 5 August, underscoring that traders should watch for local-time confirmation and any postponement or venue notes before judging settlement risk.[18][10] If Santos field a stronger side, the historical edge becomes more relevant; if Remo rotate less and control the first leg, the market’s current zero pricing could be tested quickly.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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