Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Fluminense FC 1 - 3 CR Vasco da Gama | 100% |
| Fluminense FC 0 - 0 CR Vasco da Gama | 0% |
| Fluminense FC 0 - 1 CR Vasco da Gama | 0% |
| Fluminense FC 1 - 0 CR Vasco da Gama | 0% |
| Fluminense FC 0 - 2 CR Vasco da Gama | 0% |
| Fluminense FC 1 - 1 CR Vasco da Gama | 0% |
| Fluminense FC 2 - 0 CR Vasco da Gama | 0% |
| Fluminense FC 0 - 3 CR Vasco da Gama | 0% |
| Fluminense FC 1 - 2 CR Vasco da Gama | 0% |
| Fluminense FC 2 - 1 CR Vasco da Gama | 0% |
| Fluminense FC 3 - 0 CR Vasco da Gama | 0% |
| Fluminense FC 2 - 2 CR Vasco da Gama | 0% |
| Fluminense FC 3 - 1 CR Vasco da Gama | 0% |
| Fluminense FC 2 - 3 CR Vasco da Gama | 0% |
| Fluminense FC 3 - 2 CR Vasco da Gama | 0% |
| Fluminense FC 3 - 3 CR Vasco da Gama | 0% |
| Any Other Score | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is currently pricing this exact-score contract at **0% YES**, so the market is treating that listed scoreline as effectively absent from the book for the Fluminense v Vasco da Gama Copa do Brasil tie. On Polymarket, traders hold USDC on Polygon against conditional tokens, and settlement is based strictly on the 90-minute score plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalties excluded, so the relevant question is not who advances but which regulation score, if any, matches the listed outcome.
For context, this fixture has usually been tight rather than lopsided. In 31 recent head-to-head meetings, Fluminense have won 10, Vasco da Gama 14, and seven have ended level, with the two sides scoring 32 and 37 goals respectively across those games[1]. A broader historical sample from SoccerPunter shows an even more draw-prone profile, with 59 meetings producing 21 draws and relatively modest average scoring of 1.14 goals for Fluminense and 1.22 for Vasco[19]. That kind of record matters for exact-score markets because low-margin rivalry games often cluster around narrow wins, draws, or a small set of common scorelines rather than high-scoring patterns.
The key catalysts to watch are lineup news, last-minute injury or suspension updates, and any official change to kick-off or venue, because a postponed match keeps the market open until completion. Recent head-to-head and match-stat pages also show both sides can generate chances but are not consistently high-scoring, which keeps 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 2-1 style outcomes in focus rather than extreme scores[2][15]. If the game is ultimately decided in extra time or on penalties, that will not affect this contract’s settlement, since only regulation time counts[2].
Methodology
This page reviews Fluminense FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama - Exact Score across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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