Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| LDU Quito O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| LDU Quito O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Delfin SC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| LDU Quito 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| LDU Quito 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Delfin SC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| LDU Quito (-1.5) | 0% |
| Delfin SC (-1.5) | 0% |
| LDU Quito (-2.5) | 0% |
| Delfin SC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| LDU Quito O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Delfin SC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Delfin SC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| LDU Quito 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| LDU Quito 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Delfin SC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Delfin SC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Delfin SC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket prices **LDU Quito vs. Delfin SC – More Markets** at **0% YES** today, which on the platform means the crowd is assigning no meaningful chance that any qualifying “more markets” condition resolves in the affirmative before the settlement deadline; the contract settles on **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens, so the market price reflects how traders are valuing the outcome rather than the football fixture itself. The underlying LigaPro Primera A match is scheduled for **3 August at 8:00 PM ET**.
For context, the head-to-head has been mixed over a long sample, with FootyStats and SoccerPunter showing roughly even all-time results: LDU have a slight edge in wins, but Delfin have also taken a meaningful share of meetings, and draws are common enough to matter in market pricing[3][17][18]. Recent meetings have swung sharply both ways, including LDU’s **4-0** away win in July 2025, their **3-0** home win in March 2025, and Delfin’s **1-0** win in April 2026[7][9]. That kind of split history is why a 0% crowd price usually says more about the specific market structure and settlement rules than about one team being incapable of producing a qualifying event.
The main trader watchpoints are lineup confirmation, any schedule changes, and whether the market’s exact “more markets” trigger depends on goals, cards, corners, or another stat published close to kick-off. Flashscore and ESPN currently list the fixture as live-scheduled for 4 August UTC / 3 August local listing, so any late postponement or venue update would matter more here than broad season form[1][7]. On Polymarket, those dependencies are practical: once the conditional token outcome path is set, traders are exposed to whatever official match data resolves the contract, not to the broader narrative around LDU or Delfin.
Methodology
We track LDU Quito vs. Delfin SC - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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