Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC (-1.5) | 84% |
| FC Anyang (-2.5) | 50% |
| Ulsan HD FC O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| FC Anyang O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC Anyang O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| FC Anyang 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ulsan HD FC (-2.5) | 48% |
| O/U 4.5 | 46% |
| O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| FC Anyang (-1.5) | 5% |
| FC Anyang 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ulsan HD FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Ulsan HD FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Anyang 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket has this **More Markets** contract at **53% YES** on USDC in the Polygon-based conditional token system, which makes the market close to a coin-flip rather than a strong lean. For the Ulsan HD FC v FC Anyang match itself, that kind of price usually means traders see a decent chance that the game produces enough subsidiary action — such as cards, corners, goals, or other listed side markets — to satisfy the contract, but not enough conviction to push it well above even money.
The historical frame is mixed. Ulsan and Anyang drew 1-1 in April 2026, and the longer head-to-head sample since 2025 is thin, with one source listing only a handful of meetings and a split that has included draws as well as wins for both sides.[5][11][12] Recent comparison data also points to inconsistent scoring profiles: Anyang have frequently landed in both-teams-to-score type results, while Ulsan’s recent returns have been less stable, which helps explain why a broad “more markets” question can sit near 53% instead of being priced as clearly likely or unlikely.[2][3][8]
From a trader’s perspective, the main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, any late injury or rotation news, and how the bookmaker-style market definitions map onto the official match event feed that settles the conditional tokens. Because the settlement window ends at 2026-08-02T10:30:00Z, anything announced after kick-off matters only if it affects the actual counted in-game statistics, not the pre-match thesis. Ulsan were reported to be in stronger recent form in one pre-match preview, while Anyang were described as arriving with a good away record, so the live price can move quickly if either side starts aggressively or the opening phase looks unusually open.[14][15]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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