Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 3 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% |
| Match Winner | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 5? | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game 4 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: DCG (-1.5) vs MVK Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Game Handicap: DCG (-2.5) vs MVK Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing the Deep Cross Gaming side at **100% YES** on this BO5 contract, so the market is effectively treating a DCG win as locked in on Polygon using USDC and conditional tokens. The interesting detail for traders is that the market description hinges on the match actually being played and producing a winner; if the fixture is abandoned, tied, or pushed more than seven days past the scheduled date without a result, it resolves 50-50 rather than to either team.[6]
For context, the wider pre-match field was never as one-sided as the contract implies: Strafe’s match page showed Deep Cross Gaming as a clear favourite at about 87% of community picks, while STADIO’s pre-match view put DCG around 60% and Bo3.gg leaned to a 3:2 DCG win, which is a reminder that best-of-five formats can still be swingy even when one roster is ahead on paper.[3][12][17] Head-to-head data also points to a live matchup rather than a mismatch, with each team taking one of their prior meetings and MVK winning the latest recorded series 2-1.[3]
The main catalysts now are administrative rather than competitive: whether the LCP organisers confirm the fixture as completed, whether any scheduling change affects the settlement window, and whether the result is officially published before the seven-day delay rule bites. Multiple match listings placed the series on 8 August at 09:00 UTC, but one live score page also labels the same pairing as “live” in the LCP Swiss stage, so traders should watch official bracket updates and final score posts closely.[1][3][9]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs MVK Esports (BO5) - LCP Gr… on Polymarket Alternative UK
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