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LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? 56% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? 54% Any Player Penta Kill 53% First Blood in Game 2? 53% Volume: $66K Liquidity: $407K Closes: 9 Aug 2026
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LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
56% 44% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
56% 44% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?56%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?54%
Any Player Penta Kill53%
First Blood in Game 2?53%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
First Blood in Game 1?51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)48%
O/U 2.5 Games42%
Game 2 Winner32%
Game 1 Winner31%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Any Player Penta Kill25%
Any Player Penta Kill25%
Match Winner24%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 56% probability to lol: thundertalk gaming vs top esports (bo3) - lpl group ascend. This market refers to the LoL match between ThunderTalk Gaming and Top Esports in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 9 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming"…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
and

Trade LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL G… on Polymarket Alternative UK

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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