Club Puebla vs. CD Guadalajara - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Club Puebla v CD Guadalajara contract at **0% YES** today, so USDC buyers on Polygon are effectively marking the conditional tokens at the floor rather than assigning any live probability to a positive settlement. In plain football terms, that reflects a market that sees no realistic route for the specified “more markets” outcome to clear before the settlement window closes, even though the underlying Liga MX match itself is still scheduled for 1 August at 01:00 UTC at Estadio Cuauhtémoc.[1][17]

Comparable form lines help explain that floor price. Guadalajara have already beaten Puebla 2-0 away in September 2025 and then 5-0 at home in April 2026, while wider head-to-head records also lean towards Chivas rather than Puebla.[5][12][16][19] That does not guarantee anything in a new fixture, but it gives context for why traders have not bid the contract above zero: the recent meetings have shown a clear quality gap, and the market appears to be treating this as a low-upside, dependency-heavy position rather than a binary toss-up.[6][15][17]

The main catalysts to watch are lineup confirmation, any late schedule shift, and whether the market’s exact resolution conditions are satisfied by the official match data rather than by commentary or third-party feeds. Polymarket specifies that postponed games stay open until played, cancelled games resolve No, and settlement follows the official statistics for the event.[17] Recent pre-match coverage from Chivas also pointed to Guadalajara entering with stronger standing and Puebla with weaker recent results, which matters because any late team news or fixture disruption could move a market that is currently pinned at zero more than the scoreline narrative alone.[6][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Club Puebla vs. CD Guadalajara - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.