AIK vs. Orgryte IS - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices the **More Markets** contract on AIK’s Allsvenskan fixture against Orgryte IS at **1% YES**, with settlement tied to the match and related market conditions being resolved after the game window closes on the Polygon chain using USDC and conditional tokens.[17] In practical terms, that is an extreme-tail price: the market is treating the contract as a near-unlikely outcome unless a specific scoring, timing, card, or other ancillary condition is triggered by the final match state.

The historical frame is that AIK have been the stronger side on league position and recent baseline metrics, while Orgryte have sat lower with poorer away numbers, which tends to suppress the chance of many alternative outcomes outside the most common match scripts.[1][2] Comparable previews also point to AIK carrying the clearer edge at home, with Orgryte’s recent away sequence described as weak, including several defeats and low scoring output.[7][10] For a Polymarket user, that usually means the 1% line is less about the abstract winner and more about whether a narrow, rule-specific scenario can survive 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

The main catalysts to watch are final line-ups, any late injury or suspension news, and whether the match state develops in a way that makes secondary markets reachable, such as an early goal, a red card, or a lopsided scoreline.[2][15] Kick-off has been listed for **14:30 UTC** at Strawberry Arena, and multiple live fixture pages confirm the match was scheduled for 2 August 2026, so any late changes will matter more than pre-match sentiment once the game is underway.[3][5][17] On-chain, the practical check is whether the market’s condition was actually met and whether the reported result feeds cleanly into settlement before the window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track AIK vs. Orgryte IS - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.