Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AC Sparta Praha O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AC Sparta Praha O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Olympique Lyonnais O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Olympique Lyonnais 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AC Sparta Praha 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AC Sparta Praha 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AC Sparta Praha (-1.5) | 0% |
| Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5) | 0% |
| AC Sparta Praha (-2.5) | 0% |
| Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AC Sparta Praha O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Olympique Lyonnais O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Olympique Lyonnais O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AC Sparta Praha 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| AC Sparta Praha 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Olympique Lyonnais 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Olympique Lyonnais 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Olympique Lyonnais 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket has this **More Markets** contract at **0% YES** today, which on a Polymarket set-up means the crowd is not currently assigning any probability to a qualifying sub-market being resolved in the market’s favour. The trade settles against conditional tokens on Polygon and is denominated in USDC, so the pricing is a live read on what traders think will actually be confirmed by the contract’s rules, not a view on whether Sparta Praha or Olympique Lyonnais simply “wins” the tie.
For comparable framing, Sparta and Lyon have a long European history that has generally favoured the French side: UEFA and reporting sources note six previous meetings with Lyon unbeaten, including a 3-0 win in 2021 and a 4-3 away win in Prague the same year.[3][9][13] That record matters for how a zero-cent price can persist in a niche “more markets” contract, because these contracts often stay pinned at the extremes when the outcome depends on a specific settlement clause rather than the match result alone.[2][4]
The main catalysts for a trader are the official competition documents, any last-minute team-sheet or schedule changes, and the exact scope of the market’s settlement language before the 4 August 18:00 UTC kick-off at epet ARENA in Prague.[2][4][6] Reuters-style match reporting is not yet relevant here, but UEFA and club releases confirm this is the first leg of the Champions League third qualifying round, with the return set for 11 August and, if needed, a further play-off round later in August.[3][6][12] That means anything affecting eligibility, postponement, or whether a related “more markets” condition is triggered is more important than ordinary pre-match opinion.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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