Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to mubadala citi dc open: janice tjen vs rebecca sramkova. This market refers to the tennis match between Janice Tjen and Rebecca Sramkova in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 27, 2026 at 7:25PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Janice …
Methodology
We track Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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