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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 71% O/U 6.5 65% Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles 56% 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 56% Volume: $57K Liquidity: $926K Closes: 9 Aug 2026
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 71% 29% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 71% 29% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.571%
O/U 6.565%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles56%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.556%
O/U 7.552%
NRFI47%
O/U 8.544%
Spread -1.543%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.542%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.534%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.532%
Spread -2.532%
Spread -1.528%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.526%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.524%
Spread -2.519%
Extra Innings8%

Market context

Market consensus: 71% chance of philadelphia phillies vs. baltimore orioles. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for August 2 at 1:35PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the P…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 71% for "Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 71% Other 29%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $57K.

Methodology

This page reviews Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
David ParkDavid ParkSports Data AnalystandOliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

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