Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Inter Miami CF will travel to face Philadelphia Union in Major League Soccer on 24 May 2026. The current crowd-implied probability of 43% for a Miami victory reflects moderate confidence in the away side, though the settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC that evening, leaving minimal margin for fixture postponement or rescheduling disputes. Across major platforms, this probability translates differently: Polymarket's binary YES/NO structure displays it directly, whilst Kalshi and Betfair express equivalent odds in decimal format (around 1.75 for Miami), and Smarkets' fractional interface requires conversion. Fee structures diverge meaningfully—Kalshi charges no trading fees on sports contracts, whereas Polymarket and Betfair levy 2% on net winnings, affecting position sizing for marginal trades. KYC requirements also vary: Polymarket operates with lighter verification for US residents, Kalshi enforces stricter identity checks, and Betfair's UK-regulated model sits between them.

Historical context matters here. Miami's 2025 regular season performance, roster stability, and head-to-head record against Philadelphia will anchor rational pricing. Philadelphia's home advantage at Subaru Park typically yields a 5–7 percentage-point probability bump in MLS markets, yet Miami's recent investment in attacking talent may compress that edge. Traders should monitor team news releases in the week preceding the fixture—injuries to key players, tactical shifts, or unexpected lineup changes often trigger repricing across all platforms within hours of announcement.

Methodology

This page compares Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.