Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 97% |
| O/U 1.5 | 87% |
| BK Hacken O/U 0.5 | 87% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 79% |
| AIK O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| BK Hacken 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| O/U 2.5 | 67% |
| Both Teams to Score | 67% |
| BK Hacken O/U 1.5 | 61% |
| BK Hacken 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 57% |
| AIK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 53% |
| AIK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| AIK O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 39% |
| BK Hacken O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| BK Hacken 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| BK Hacken (-1.5) | 30% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 28% |
| O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| BK Hacken 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| AIK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| AIK O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| BK Hacken (-2.5) | 15% |
| O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| AIK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| AIK (-1.5) | 12% |
| AIK (-2.5) | 4% |
Market context
BK Hacken vs. AIK - More Markets — current market-implied probability: 97%. More markets for the Allsvenskan game, scheduled for July 27 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reviews BK Hacken vs. AIK - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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