How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

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Market context

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained heavily disrupted in the week beginning 11 May, with IMF Portwatch data being the settlement reference and the relevant count covering all transit calls, not just tankers. That matters because the market is pricing a surprisingly low chance of a weekly total reaching the level needed for a YES, even though the corridor is normally one of the world’s busiest chokepoints. For comparison, an early-May snapshot in shipping reports suggested activity had recovered only partially after the worst of the disruption, with traffic still far below normal and many vessels either waiting or rerouting.

The closest guide is the recent Strait crisis itself: when risk rose, the number of calls dropped sharply, but not to zero, and the weekly totals moved around depending on whether carriers resumed controlled transits or held back for another day. A Lloyd’s List report cited in a recent YouTube interview said traffic had “collapsed” and that there were around 600 large ships inside the Gulf and many hundreds waiting outside, which is the sort of backdrop that can keep a weekly total depressed even if a few sailings restart. On Kalshi or Smarkets, that uncertainty would usually show up as a price closer to the market’s implied probability; on Polymarket it is expressed directly as a percentage, while Betfair-style books add commission and may show a different effective price after fees.

What to watch is any statement on corridor access, escort arrangements, insurer war-risk pricing, and whether carriers publish resumed schedules. ShipFinder reported at least 54 transits between 11 and 17 May versus 25 in the prior week, a reminder that totals can jump quickly if even a limited reopening holds. The key dependency is whether IMF Portwatch records daily calls consistently through 17 May; any reporting gap can matter as much as the operational reality.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

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Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.