Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Terence Atmane vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to mubadala citi dc open: terence atmane vs alejandro tabilo. This market refers to the tennis match between Terence Atmane and Alejandro Tabilo in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ter…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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